Monday, May 4, 2009

The great Indian election tamasha!!

Well, the 15th loksabha elections are into its 3rd phase. There has been a lot of hullabaloo over whether this election really is one without "issues"? Apparently there seems to be no reason for believing that given the host of serious issues like the global financial downturn, the increasing threat posed by the Talibans who are breathing over our neck, the security and counter terrorism policies(especially after 26/11) and the foreign policy issues that require immediate attention from the government. But this election, strangely enough, is not being fought on these grounds. Unimportant Issues like Varun gandhi's alleged hate speech, withdrawal of the red corner notice against Ottavio Quattrochi and preposterous populist measures are the order of the day. While the congress is dwelling in the past five years and is busy citing their achievements instead of carting out a concrete action plan for the future, the BJP is obsessed with Dr. Manmohan Singh . The left, on the other hand, has formed a coalition with some parties with whom they have the least ideological commonality, and is fighting the elections under a banner of a Third front whose most important objective is to form a non-congress and non-BJP government at the centre rather than real issues that challenge the country today. Anybody following the Indian political theatre closely would know that party manifestos are just dustbin-fillers. Populist measures like providing rice at incredible prices and waiving loans irrespective of the fiscal burden it will produce flood the manifestos of the two central parties. The BJP manifesto expectedly contains the abolition of cow slaughter and removal of article 370 of the constitution in addition. The left manifesto imparts the credit of the partial successes of the NREGS and the relatively lower impact of the global financial downturn on India to the 41/2 years of the left as a part of the UPA government. Championing the cause for anti-liberalisation of economy the left promises to strengthen PSUs and PSBs while severely restricting the inflow of foreign funds via FDI, FII, ECB,FCCB etc whereas they were the instruments which propelled India into the dizzying heights of near double digit economic growth at the first place. They also claim that they will follow an independent foreign policy which essentially means scrapping of the 123 agreement, weakened ties with America and leanings towards China. Question is....will the left be able to retain these policies if, by a remote chance, the Third front comes to power?
The case for congress is strong but if it loses some of its seat-tally of 2004 it has only itself to blame for. After doing a fairly good job at the centre for the last five years the congress has missed its opportunity to strike a chord with the people by leveraging its accomplishments in a big way. BJP's urban elite vote bank will remain more or less intact due to this. Repeated attacks from the BJP on mishandling of the dismal financial scenario and on the "weak PM" issue have failed to elicit a strong response. The biggest spoiler for the party may be its decision to go to polls alone and not as a part of UPA. One gets a feeling that this is a long term strategy aimed at consolidating the party and increase its reach throughout India even at the cost of losing the elections and having to sit at the opposition. This fact alone shows a little lack of drive on the congress' part which will not go unnoticed by a section of voters. Congress' vote bank politics have long been an issue of criticism and the PM's statement on the right of minorities on natural resources has the potential to create trouble for the party.
After the parting of ways with the BJD in orissa on the issue of the Kandhamal riots, the BJP Looks a little jittery. The Varun Gandhi controversy and the party's stand of not taking any action on him in contrast to the prompt response of the Congress in the Tytler- Sajjan Kumar case will also create problems. The apprehension of saffron terror and the memories of Sadhvi Pragya Thakur and Col. Purohit is still fresh in minds of voters. Whether these will be trifled by the Developmental track record of the A.B.Vajpayee government will only be known on the 16th.
The emergence of the Fourth front have created some ruckus but in all probability it will also line up with the majority of third front parties in a bid to play kingmaker post May-16th. The post poll equations have the potential to be mind-bogglers and any predictions on those will be a thorough insult on the opportunistic regional parties who are an indispensable part of the Indian polity. The real tamasha, thus, will begin once the polls are over!!

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